I see several keys to the game for Duke against Kansas, the first of them being taking and hitting good shots. Duke can’t expect to shoot the high percentage it did against Davidson but it will need to make Kansas pay attention to it’s shooters. Duke will need to use the same ball movement to get those good shots and to also open up opportunities for Jabari Parker and Rodney Hood to drive the lane or to take mid-range jumpers. Duke will give up size in the paint so rebounding will be at a premium for the Devils. With no clear answer for Joel Embiid in the middle Duke will have to run every chance it gets to neutralize the effectiveness of the big man. As raw as Embiid is, he has the ability to give Duke fits down low. Duke will have to put a body on Wiggins if they are to prevent being on the wrong end of a sports center top10 play. Wiggins is fast, and jumps like he’s on a pogo stick but Duke can prevent him those second chance put back dunks by sticking to box out fundamentals. If not, well, you’ve seen the tape of the youngster. Guard play will be extremely important for Duke, if Duke is smart with the ball and the assist numbers are high I see Duke winning comfortably but if this game gets sloppy and Duke does not utilize its maturity at the guard spot it could be a long night and a nip and tuck type of game.
The x-factors for Kansas could be Wayne Selden. Dude is a hulk of a guard, he has an NBA body and it will be difficult for Duke guards to score over him and to rebound if Selden does his job. Joel Embiid, raw talent and NBA size, if Duke gets out to the races hopefully they can neutralize his effectiveness.
X-factors for Duke: Amile Jefferson. If Jefferson can be is wormy self and get rebounds and easy opportunities he could be huge for Duke. Also for Duke Quinn Cook, Cook will need to set up his teammates and also pick his spots for scoring opportunities. If he makes good decisions Duke wins.